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Each year the NBA lets fans vote to pick the five starting players for the East and West for the Allstar game with the motto of “Vote early, vote often.” To counteract the casual fans (aka. drunken morons) propensity for selecting the five NBA players whose names they can remember because they were on a box of Wheaties in 1992, the NBA gives each coach seven votes for reserves who are actually capable of playing basketball without the aid of a walker or twice a minute morphine injections. Read the rest of this entry »

Back in early October I made some predictions for the upcoming 2005 - 2006 NBA season I knew I’d regret. Let’s see how far from the mark I was, and where I think we’re headed.

We’ll start again back East and work our way up to the Northwest.
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Continued from The East…

Southwest Division

The Dallas Mavericks look worse than they have in years. I understand letting Michael Finley go as a financial decision (the second that they’ve made in the last two years…). Mark Cuban, fiscally responsible? Picking up the Doug Christie Show puzzles me though, he’s a washed up distraction. At any rate they’re in a division that’s in a state of flux, the Spurs have a lock on 1st, the Hornets a lock on 5th, the middle is up in the air. I’ll put them at 3rd in the division.

I like the moves the Houston Rockets made in the off-season. I think Stromile Swift will flourish here, and with a trio of Yao, T-Mac, and Swift you’re going to do reasonably well. Derek Anderson and Rafer Alston will likely be nothing more than distractions, but wouldn’t it be great if both of them just needed a change of scenery? I see the Rockets picking up the 2nd spot in the Southwest.

Unlike the Heat, the Memphis Grizzlies blew up the roster in all the right ways. Hakim Warrick was a steal in the draft, Stromile Swift was a loss that they could suffer through as a result. Tricking someone else into dealing with Bonzi Wells was brilliant, and Jason Williams needed to go to make room for Bobby Jackson, Eddie Jones, and Damon Stoudamire. The problem with Memphis is that getting everyone to gel is probably going to take more than training camp. If the roster makes it into next season intact I expect them to do very well, I can also see a big surge toward the end of this season. My guess as to where they’ll land is in the 4th spot, but if they manage to gel earlier I can see them making a run on 3rd or even 2nd.

You have to feel for the Hornets. They were a miserable team to begin with and now they have no real home. Chris Paul was a great pick that necessitated the trade of Dan Dickau. Picking up Arvydas Macijauskas and Kirk Snyder were nice surprises, too bad any enthusiasm for this season has the misery of Katrina hanging over it. Hopefully Oklahoma City will come up to support these guys, no matter the record. I see them taking 5th in the division, and they’re strong contenders for the worst record overall.

The San Antonio Spurs managed to pick up Michael Finley and Nick Van Exel for the spare change that was rattling around on the floor of the team bus. Are they going to win it all? Probably. Will it be fun to watch? Probably not. I wish I could get behind their fundamentals style of play, but I can’t. At any rate, 1st in their division, 1st in the West, probably the eventual winners of the whole thing.

Pacific Division

The Golden State Warriors are going to do better than anyone who is a casual fan of basketball can imagine. They tore up the end of last season, Ike Diogu was a great draft pick for them, and they’re poised to stop the sucking. 3rd in their division, and the folks in Oakland are going to love it.

The addition of Sam Cassell to the Los Angeles Clippers doesn’t strike me as a good sign. They lost Marko Jaric and Bobby Simmons for a guy whose back gave out two years ago. Shaun Livingston’s potential will have to wait on hold until Cassell breaks, again, and I can see Elton Brand demanding a trade to anywhere else three months in. The upside? They’re going to do better than the Lakers. 4th in the division.

The Los Angeles Lakers circus added Andrew Bynum (who I have to mention for his unintentionally hilarious MySpace page), Kwame Brown, and Phil Jackson. They lost Caron Butler, who they let languish and deserved better than they were ever going to give him. They’re not a good team, they’re not going to do well with the simple addition of Phil, and Lamar Odom doesn’t strike me as the kind of player who enjoys the triangle offense. I’d expect trade demands from Odom early enough in the season that they may make something of themselves if they honor his request. I also expect that Kwame and Kobe come to blows, with Phil punching both of them instead of helping to break it up. 5th in the division.

The Phoenix Suns ran out of gas last season because of the injuries to Joe Johnson. This year they’re going to have to make do having lost both him and Quentin Richardson. Boris Diaw was a nice pick-up, and Amare Stoudemire is only going to get better, especially with Kurt Thomas around to help and Brian Grant around to pick up some quick fouls. 1st in the division, but they’re not going to be as strong as last year.

The Sacramento Kings losing Bobby Jackson and Darius Songaila might hurt more than picking up Bonzi Wells, who knows. Shareef Abdur-Rahim will hopefully have his first winning season. I see the Kings taking 2nd in the division, and again, like the Suns, I don’t see them as strong as last year. Off court distractions related to team ownership, Las Vegas, and new stadiums aren’t beyond the realm of possibility.

Northwest Division

The Denver Nuggets did pretty much nothing worth noting in the off-season. That might be good, since the rest of the division essentially imploded. They’re tenuously my pick for 1st in the Northwest division.

The Minnesota Timberwolves dropped Sam Cassell for Marko Jaric, but haven’t dealt with the Latrell Sprewell situation. I can’t see them as more functional until he’s feeding his family elsewhere. I’m guessing that this is the year that KG finally snaps. 3rd in the division, unless some spectacular trade happens to keep KG from going postal.

Ah, my Portland Trail Blazers. They managed to lose Derek Anderson, Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Damon Stoudamire, and Nick Van Exel. I’m almost positive that less than half the team is of drinking age. Martell Webster, their absolutely wonderful draft pick, may end up starting at SG at the tender age of 18. Jarrett Jack and Juan Dixon will fight it out with Webster and Sebastian Telfair for time at the guard positions. They’ve got one true PF on the roster and a half dozen or more guys at SF. It’s a mess, and even if trades are made to even things out it’s going to be at least two years before they’re competitive again. The addition of Nate McMillan at coach bodes well, as do the reports that Zach Randolph is rehabbing well. 5th in the division, with a chance to take 4th if the Jazz really drop the ball.

The Seattle SuperSonics managed to re-sign everyone except Antonio Daniels. They also lost the only coach who seemed like he could make it work. I’m guessing that they pull off 2nd in the division, 1st if they’re lucky, 3rd if the T’wolves make the right trades.

The Utah Jazz picked up Deron Williams in the draft, hopefully he’s ready to play 48 minutes a game. Hopefully Jerry Sloan doesn’t hate him. Hopefully Ostertag decides to wear the ultra tiny 80’s shorts in an homage to Stockton. With a healthy Andrei Kirilenko and Carlos Boozer they could end up surprising everyone. Jerry Sloan has pulled off miracles before. For now, 4th in the division.

Overall for the West here’s how I see the final eight:

1. San Antonio Spurs
2. Phoenix Suns
3. Denver Nuggets
4. Houston Rockets
5. Seattle SuperSonics
6. Sacramento Kings
7. Dallas Mavericks
8. Golden State Warriors

The Timberwolves make the top 8 with the right trades, as could the Grizzlies if they manage to gel earlier in the season. The Kings and Mavericks both seem vulnerable. In the end look for the Spurs to win it all.

With the start of the 2005-2006 season less than a month a way it’s high time to make predictions I’ll regret two months from now. We’ll start back East and work our way up to the Northwest.

Atlantic Division

The Boston Celtics got lucky and picked up Gerald “Nine Fingers” Green in the draft, none of their other off-season moves make that much sense. They blew up the team mid-way through last year to get Antoine Walker back only to ditch him again. Given the improvements last year in New Jersey and this off-season in New York I’m pegging Boston to take 4th in the Division. The real fun in Boston will be guessing how long before they jettison Qyntel Woods, my vote goes for Halloween. The tougher question is how long do they hold on to Paul Pierce before they trade him to start the rebuilding process in earnest.

The New Jersey Nets didn’t do much in the off-season, the only notable addition is on again/off again locker room cancer Jeff McInnis. What they’ve got is the potential of an entire season of the healthy trio of Vince Carter, Richard Jefferson, and Jason Kidd. Assuming that all three of them manage to miss less than 10 games the Nets are my pick to win the weak Atlantic division.

For once I think I see where the New York Knicks are going. Drafting Channing Frye and Nate Robinson, losing Tim Thomas and Kurt Thomas, and picking up Eddy Curry, Jerome James, and Quentin Richardson are all great moves (assuming that there really is nothing wrong with Curry’s heart), not to mention Larry “I don’t want to coach the Knicks” Brown. I love how they simply continue to flaunt the salary cap as though it doesn’t exist, they’ve got to be pushing close to $115M/season at this point. At any rate, they’re strong contenders for 2nd in the Atlantic division, and if Larry can work some magic they might even be able to do better than that. If everything implodes I see them at 3rd in the Atlantic at worst, Boston and Toronto look that bad.

The Philadelphia 76ers didn’t do much in the off-season. Picking up the underrated Lee Nailon was a nice move, and the existing roster lends itself to fighting the Knicks for the number 2 spot.

I don’t think the Toronto Raptors could have done much worse. Charlie Villanueva seems like a really nice guy (assuming, of course, that he’s not actually an Alien), but they could have done much, much, better. Losing Donyell Marshall and the cantankerous Rafer Alston were forgone conclusions. I feel awful for Chris Bosh, who definitely deserves better than this. They’re taking 5th in the Atlantic no matter what, and will be fighting the Bobcats and Hornets for the basement dwelling trophy of the #1 pick come next summer.

Southeast Division

Ah, the Atlanta Hawks… ~11 season ticket holders, and $75 floor seats. It’s hard not to like the draft of Marvin Williams and the (*gasp*) free agent signing of Joe Johnson, but… it’s the Hawks. They’re almost certain to be better than last year, how much is a question for the experts. I’d really like to see Josh Childress, Al Harrington, and Josh Smith step it up big time, but I doubt that the current atmosphere is going to let that happen. I predict that they’ll beat out Charlotte for the 4th spot in the Southeast.

I liked that the Charlotte Bobcats drafted Raymond Felton, but Sean May doesn’t make as much sense. Chemistry-wise they’re a good match, but Danny Granger would have made 10x more sense, and he was on the board when they picked May. They’re a lock for the fifth spot in the Southeast, and will likely have the 2nd worst record in the NBA.

Do you think Pat Riley figured that the Miami Heat would be more fun to coach if you had a bunch of aging prima donnas? Losing Damon Jones and Eddie Jones won’t hurt as much as adding Gary Payton, James Posey, Antoine Walker, and Jason Williams. It’s going to be next to impossible for them to not take 1st in the so bad it’s ugly Southeast, but I’m thinking they’re the #2 seed in the East… too many changes in directions that make no sense. Dwayne Wade gets my before-the-season-even-starts vote for MVP. He’s going to have a huge year, even if he has to carry Shaq on his back.

How bad is Orlando? Instead of signing with the Magic Fran Vazquez is playing overseas and they’re proud of signing Ruben Boumtje-Boumtje (great guy, awful basketball player). Losing Doug Christie was the best thing they did in the off-season. It’ll be fun to see if the Hawks can beat them for 3rd in the Southeast.

The Washington Wizards losing Kwame Brown is a good thing, for them and him, losing Larry Hughes is, on the other hand, awful for the Wizards. Antonio Daniels isn’t going to make up for it, but I’m glad to see the Caron Butler won’t languish out in La-La land anymore. They’re taking 2nd in the Southeast, but won’t be as good as they were last year.

Central Division

I feel bad for the Chicago Bulls, they offered Eddy Curry $400k/year for the next 50 years if the DNA tests came back against him playing, only to have to end up trading him to the Knicks for Isiah Thomas’ pocket lint. The addition of the underrated Darius Songaila was a nice move. I’m really looking forward to Ben Gordon stepping it up, and it’ll be interesting to see how the rest of the youth movement works out. There are at least a couple of teams that are trying to rebuild in the way that Chicago has the last few years, and it’ll be interesting to see if they continue to improve. They’re taking 4th in the surprisingly strong Central division.

This is the year that LeBron starts to shine, the Cleveland Cavaliers have finally built a team to be proud of, Larry Hughes, Donyell Marshall, and Damon Jones were all great additions. I’m guessing that they beat out the Pistons for 2nd in the Central division.

The Detroit Pistons will finally get to see what Darko Milicic is made of, too bad they had to lose Larry Brown to get there. Nothing too notable in the off-season out of Detroit except for on the coaching front. It’ll be interesting to see if Flip Saunders can get them better than 3rd in the division.

The Indiana Pacers season rests on Ron Artest. If he stays sane enough to play out the whole season they’re #1 in the East. Danny Granger was a steal in the draft, as was the signing of Sarunas Jasikevicius. The loss of Reggie Miller will be interesting, he was a force. I’m banking on a crazy-lite season out of Artest and giving them the division and the East’s #1 spot.

The Milwaukee Bucks picked up Andrew Bogut with the #1 pick. Who knows how he’ll fare, but let’s hope, for their sake, that he’s at least as good as Shawn Bradley (ouch). More importantly, they re-signed Redd, picked up Bobby Simmons, and T.J. Ford is supposedly showing signs of being able to play again. Even if everything gels I still can’t see them doing better than 5th in the division, it’s a strong division, and they’re on, at the very least, a short rebuilding run.

Overall for the East here’s how I see the final eight:

1. Indiana Pacers
2. Miami Heat
3. New Jersey Nets
4. Cleveland Cavaliers
5. Detroit Pistons
6. Washington Wizards
7. Chicago Bulls
8. Philadelphia 76ers

The Knicks could potentially sneak into the 8th spot, and there’s definitely room for jitter between the Pistons, Wizards, and Bulls. As far as the Finals go it’s either the Heat or the Pacers, and unless either of them gels to the level of the 2004 Red Sox morons the West keeps the title in 2006.

Up next… The West.